Early tracking for Shane Black's The Predator is looking very good for 20th Century Fox. Reports claim The Predator (Predator 4) is expected to clear $30 million during it's opening weekend (September 14th - 16th).
With an excellent early haul and very little by means of competition, Predator could prove to still be a viable franchise and hopefully secure itself another sequel (which Black and Fox originally had plans for). Of course, the future of Predator is ultimately up to Disney, who will absorb the film rights to the franchise once their merger with Fox finalizes.
Check back next month for updates on The Predator's box office performance and for news regarding any potential sequels!
Good question G. H. (Gman) . It seems noteworthy that we have not seen tons of trailers like with AC, thus keeping costs down. I get the feeling somehow that Shane Black is doing things right- fairly quiet yet giving just enough to pique interest.
G. H. (Gman) well the more interesting question would be how does this fare in China? Will it be shown in cinemas there?
This movie is more hyped than Predators and it only is expected to make 30 mil? The last one made 24 (27 if we adjust with inflation) in it's opening weekend. Judging by the trailers and the several re-shoots I would not be surprised that this would have costed 70+ million, but it could make 3 times it's cost world wide being a minor success.
ignorantGuy I have no proof but I think Predator will crush Predators. The re shoots only took a couple days from what I read. It might cost a few bucks if there is a high profile cameo. The international market is another consideration as well like you stated. I would imagine a respectful showing based on the name alone.
Movies like this never seem to be huge money makers, but I think this one will do better than most. I cannot prove it but I just think there is a demand for something like this and fans will latch on to it.
If they can really get audiences into this through the development of the humans characters and they haven't shown everything on The Ultimate Predator, (and other "standards" like a balance of good action and story), I imagine this should do what they are tracking/projecting.
Honestly though, how in the world do they track/project an opening weekend? Ticket sales so far and some statistical analysis? I always wondered about the people who are definitely going to see this, but haven't purchased tickets yet... how would they be factored in.
Membrane Of course using some statistical model, but it probably takes into account other movies in the same genre, the month of the year, maybe competition. Ticket pre-orders might play a factor, but I don't think is really that relevant. Do they already know exactly in which theaters will it open?
Remember, in order for the film to just break even it needs to make 2-2.5x its budget worldwide. It's not as simple as merely making up what the movie cost. It'd be nice to have a number to root for. If the movie did cost $70 million it's got to haul in $140-175 million before the studio considers it a success.
So far the build-up to this movie's release has been plagued with justified negativity from the fanbase and an evident lack of faith from the studio (reshoots, entire narratives and characters dropped, remaining narrative recycled from previous installments, delayed marketing), add the public perception of this movie, which is best summed up in one word - "meh" and then ask if we can honestly expect this movie to hit the magic $300 million marker in box office earnings.
Movies like this, Solo, RoboCop (2014), Terminator: Genisys, Ghostbusters (reboot), The Mummy, Justice league etc. should never have been green-lit. When are studios going to learn that behind every good movie is a good story, a good script - studios need to stop throwing money at franchises and give them the due care and attention.
I have observed a generally positive vibe from the forum. As far as being a major blockbuster- I hope it, but I have doubts just because these movies don't seem to have mass appeal. That does not mean it will not break even. I cannot shake the feeling that this will be pretty damn good.
Yeah, we are trying to keep coverage of The Predator positive, because the movies receiving enough negativity elsewhere (also why I've not covered any news on it in a while), the truth is this movie is facing an uphill struggle to make the money it needs to at the box office. We all hope the negativity is wrong but experience tells us to expect the worse. Either way, we'll find out when the first reviews and weekend figures come in in two weeks time.
Its like i said before i dont think the Predator Franchise has as big a Negative Buzz about it, i dont think the AVP Franchise Damaged the Predator Franchise as much as it did the ALIEN one, by that Damage to the Xenomorph compared to the Predators. The PredatorFranchise has mainly been just about these Space Hunters.... where as the Alien Franchise as also about Ripley etc.
I dont know how much the Budget was but i do expect the Predator to hit past $200M and i would assume that would be considered a Success. If the Budget is sub $70M Mark.
I dont think it has as big a BUZZ as Prometheus did when it hit the Box Office as a lot of folk would have seen that as Ridley Scotts return to the Alien Universe and i feel that contributed to a lot of interest to make it $400M
But i think Predator Fans are going to be more interested in this Direction of the next Movie, after the 2010 Predators, than i would say Alien Fans would be after Alien Covenant.
So what i am trying to say is i can see more Good Reason for Predator Fans to be Optimistic for this movie and Predators made just over 3X its Money back and i do think The Predator would Perform similar...
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